Background: Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) remains the major cause of death after cardiac transplantation during long-term follow-up. Nevertheless, annual angiographic evaluation is difficult to perform routinely. We evaluated the value of clinical risk factors and non-invasive testing for cardiac allograft vasculopathy in predicting cardiac events or death in asymptomatic patients with normal ventricular function during long-term follow-up after heart transplantation.
Methods: We studied 39 patients, mean aged 48 +/- 13 years, at 86 +/- 31 months after heart transplantation. Patients underwent thallium scintigraphy, treadmill stress testing, dobutamine stress echocardiography, and angiography to detect CAV. We prospectively observed all patients an additional 4 years for acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, or death.
Results: Angiography detected CAV in 15 patients (38%). Three patients had acute myocardial infarction and another 7 had congestive heart failure, representing 25% of cardiac events during the study period. Nine deaths (23%) occurred during the same observation time. Univariate analysis showed that increased body mass index, positive dobutamine stress echocardiography results, and positive angiography results were associated significantly with cardiac events or death during follow-up. In the absence of coronary angiography, stepwise logistic regression identified positive dobutamine echocardiography results as the unique independent predictor of cardiac events (p = 0.001) or death (p = 0.002).
Conclusion: Cardiac events and death after heart transplantation increased during long-term follow-up of this population. However, dobutamine stress echocardiography is well tolerated and, in the absence of routine angiographic evaluation, may be a strong predictor of these events.