[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability]

Gac Sanit. 2004 Sep-Oct;18(5):391-7. doi: 10.1016/s0213-9111(04)71850-6.
[Article in Spanish]

Abstract

Objective: To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis.

Method: We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model.

Results: The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks.

Conclusions: Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Publication types

  • English Abstract
  • Review

MeSH terms

  • Graft Rejection / mortality
  • Heart Transplantation / mortality*
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Risk Assessment
  • Survival Rate