A weather-driven model of malaria transmission

Malar J. 2004 Sep 6:3:32. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-3-32.

Abstract

Background: Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission.

Methods: This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages.

Results: Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection.

Conclusion: A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Africa
  • Animals
  • Anopheles / growth & development
  • Anopheles / parasitology
  • Anopheles / physiology*
  • Cattle
  • Climate
  • Female
  • Host-Parasite Interactions
  • Humans
  • Insect Vectors / growth & development
  • Insect Vectors / parasitology
  • Insect Vectors / physiology*
  • Malaria, Falciparum / transmission*
  • Models, Biological*
  • Population Dynamics
  • Probability
  • Rain
  • Seasons
  • Species Specificity
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Temperature
  • Weather*
  • Zimbabwe