Background: There are no studies of the relative significance in Norway of registered sales, tax-free import, border trade or smuggling of tobacco.
Material and methods: The estimated registered sales of tobacco are based on data from the Norwegian customs and excise authorities. The border trade and tax-free import estimates were based on nation-wide, representative surveys of daily smokers aged 16-74 carried out by Statistics Norway for the years 1990-1993 and 1997-2001. There are no detailed data on the scale of smuggling other than confiscation statistics compiled by the customs and excise authorities. It is assumed that confiscations amount to about a tenth of the total amount smuggled into the country.
Results: The unregistered consumption of cigarettes and tobacco has been on the rise since the early 1990s; in the years 1997-2001 it accounted for about a quarter of total consumption. Broken down, the figures are as follows: 11% was purchased in Sweden, 5% in Denmark, 9% in other foreign countries; 1% was smuggled into the country.
Interpretation: The rise in unregistered tobacco consumption is putting further pressure on the high Norwegian taxes on tobacco. But if taxes were cut, domestic demand would rise, and hence have little or even negative impact on revenue flowing to the government from the legal tobacco market and probably little impact on the levels of imported tobacco through tax-free arrangements or cross-border trade. Hence, although the price gap between Norway and neighbouring countries narrows, we must assume that the motivation to acquire tobacco will remain unaffected while Norwegians continue to travel to Sweden to stock up on inexpensive meat produce.