Markov chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003 Dec 23;100(26):15324-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0306899100. Epub 2003 Dec 8.

Abstract

Many stochastic simulation approaches for generating observations from a posterior distribution depend on knowing a likelihood function. However, for many complex probability models, such likelihoods are either impossible or computationally prohibitive to obtain. Here we present a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for generating observations from a posterior distribution without the use of likelihoods. It can also be used in frequentist applications, in particular for maximum-likelihood estimation. The approach is illustrated by an example of ancestral inference in population genetics. A number of open problems are highlighted in the discussion.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Biological Evolution
  • Computer Simulation
  • DNA / genetics
  • DNA, Mitochondrial / genetics
  • Genetics, Population
  • Humans
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Markov Chains*
  • Models, Biological
  • Monte Carlo Method*
  • Stochastic Processes

Substances

  • DNA, Mitochondrial
  • DNA