Assumed policy similarity and voter preference

J Soc Psychol. 2003 Apr;143(2):149-62. doi: 10.1080/00224540309598437.

Abstract

The effects of attitude similarity on voters' preferences were examined. Using secondary analyses, the authors created measures of assumed similarity across 6 issues between voters and U.S. presidential candidates (in 1972). Greater similarity was associated with greater attraction (operationalized in terms of voters' presidential preferences). In 2 independent analyses, perceived similarity resulted in predictive accuracy of 84% to 88%. In a 3rd analysis, the predictive efficiency of each of 6 similarity measures was determined and used to develop a model that accurately predicted voters' actions in a hold-out sample. Findings demonstrate the importance of perceived attitude similarity in determining voter preferences and suggest the utility of earlier similarity-attraction research for the development of models of policy choice behavior.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Attitude*
  • Choice Behavior*
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Politics*
  • Public Policy
  • United States