Aim: To evaluate in a prospective study the prognostic factors of recurrent bleeding and mortality in patients presenting with high risk peptic ulcer bleeding routinely treated by endoscopic hemostasis.
Patients and methods: A multicenter study was carried out in 8 Western French hospitals in 144 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding peptic from ulcer type I or IIa, b as defined by Forrest classification. Thirty four and 38 parameters were studied respectively in order to predict recurrent bleeding and death. Significant predictive factors (P < 0.1) in univariate analysis were entered in a multivariate logistic regression analysis.
Results: Endoscopic hemostasis was performed in 108 of 144 cases (75%). Recurrent bleeding and death occurred in 39 (28%) and 22 cases (15%), respectively. By multivariate analysis, the only predictor of rebleeding was hypovolemia at admission. Predictors of death were ASA score, cardiovascular Goldman score and recurrent bleeding. In this study, prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection was low (41%) but was not a predictive factor.
Conclusions: In a selected population of peptic ulcer bleeding patients with high risk of rebleeding, prevalence of recurrent bleeding and death remains rather high, despite routine endoscopic hemostasis. In the era of endoscopic hemostasis, clinical parameters remain the best prognostic factors of peptic ulcer bleeding outcome.