We tested three theories predicting the timing of bud burst in mature birch (Betula pendula Roth) trees utilizing a 60-year phenological time series together with meteorological temperature observations. Predictions of the timing of bud burst based on light conditions in addition to temperature were more accurate than predictions based on dormancy development and temperature (prediction standard error of 2.4 days versus 4.3 days). The signal from light conditions, represented by fixed calendar date, determined the start of bud ontogenesis rather than dormancy release. We suggest that models developed to predict the timing of bud burst be utilized in the analysis of plant responses to climate change and of climate change itself.