The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for periodontal disease progression by individual characteristics at baseline among elderly people over a 2-year period. Subjects were selected from 4542 people aged 70 years residing in Niigata who were in good general health and who did not require special care for their daily activities. Gender, smoking and alcohol drinking habits were obtained using a questionnaire, while serum levels of disease markers were investigated and attachment levels were clinically recorded. For the assessment of periodontal disease progression, additional attachment loss was used if one or more sites had a 3-mm or more increase in probing attachment level over a 2-year period. In all, 394 subjects (208 males and 186 females) were surveyed. Approximately 75% of subjects exhibited additional attachment loss over a 2-year period. Significant associations were found between additional attachment loss and smoking, and attachment level of 6 mm or more at baseline, with odds ratios of 3.75 and 2.29, respectively. Smoking habit and baseline attachment level of 6 mm or more may be considered risk factors for further attachment loss among healthy elderly people.