Models for transmission of disease with immigration of infectives

Math Biosci. 2001 Jun;171(2):143-54. doi: 10.1016/s0025-5564(01)00057-8.

Abstract

Simple models for disease transmission that include immigration of infective individuals and variable population size are constructed and analyzed. A model with a general contact rate for a disease that confers no immunity admits a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally stable. A model with mass action incidence for a disease in which infectives either die or recover with permanent immunity has the same qualitative behavior. This latter result is proved by reducing the system to an integro-differential equation. If mass action incidence is replaced by a general contact rate, then the same result is proved locally for a disease that causes fatalities. Threshold-like results are given, but in the presence of immigration of infectives there is no disease-free equilibrium. A considerable reduction of infectives is suggested by the incorporation of screening and quarantining of infectives in a model for HIV transmission in a prison system.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology
  • Communicable Diseases / transmission*
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious*
  • Emigration and Immigration*
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • HIV Infections / transmission
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological*
  • Prisons