This study used a previously developed model to predict herd mean energy balance of the first 12 wk of lactation from test-day information. The predictions were compared with calculated energy balance based on feed analysis and to changes in body weight. Seven independent feeding trials including 43 diets (519 lactations, 254 cows; 1987 to 1996) were used. Conventional diets were discriminated from nonconventional diets by significant differences between mean calculated energy balance of subtrial diets versus control diets. The total difference between group means of predicted minus calculated energy balance was positive throughout the observed lactation period. It was lowest (5 to 9 MJ of net energy for lactation) during negative energy balance of the conventional diets in wk 2 to 7 when 18 to 50% of the total difference was due to random variation. Because of this difference, both predicted and calculated energy balances were compared to body weight change as a reference for true energy balance. Body weight change was adjusted for rumen fill. While calculated energy balance tended to be negative at times when cows gained weight, predicted energy balance was positive. Cows fed nonconventional diets gained weight, while calculated energy balance was extremely negative, whereas predicted energy balance based on test-day information was positive. We concluded that the prediction difference was relatively small when standard rations were used, and that nonconventional rations biased predicted energy balance to a lesser extent than calculated energy balance. Estimating energy balance based on test-day information appears feasible.