Objective: We have previously suggested using the paired values of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c to identify potential diabetic subjects. In this article, we followed up on 208 nondiabetic subjects and examined their rates of progression to diabetes. We analyzed their likelihood of becoming diabetic according to their baseline FPG and HbA1c concentrations.
Research design and methods: Between 1988 and 1995, 2,877 Chinese subjects with risk factors for diabetes underwent screening. Of these, 2,250 had FPG <7.8 mmol/l and 2-h plasma glucose (PG) <11.1 mmol/l. Of these 2,250 subjects, 265 were randomly recruited for an annual oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) until they progressed to develop diabetes. Of those 265 subjects, 57 had baseline FPG > or =7.0 mmol/l and were excluded from the present analysis. Hence, the progression of glucose tolerance in 208 subjects who were nondiabetic according to the new American Diabetes Association diagnostic criteria (FPG < 7.0 mmol/l and 2-h PG < 11.1 mmol/l) was examined
Results: Of the 208 nondiabetic subjects, 26 (12.5%) were men and 182 (87.5%) were women. After a mean follow-up of 1.60 +/- 1.16 years (range 1-7, median 1), 44 (21.2%) progressed to develop diabetes and 164 (78.8%) remained nondiabetic. Those who were diabetic at the end of the study had a high likelihood ratio (LR) of 9.3 to have baseline FPG > or =6.1 mmol/l and baseline HbA1c > or =6.1%. This was compared with a low LR of 0.6-1.1 in diabetic subjects who had either FPG <6.1 mmol/l or HbA1c <6.1% or both at baseline. The crude rate of progression to diabetes was more than five times higher (44.1 vs. 8.1%) in those whose baseline FPG was > or =6.1 mmol/l and baseline HbA1c was > or =6.1% compared with those whose baseline FPG was <6.1 mmol/l and baseline HbA1c was <6.1%.
Conclusions: For Chinese subjects with risk factors for glucose intolerance, the use of paired FPG and HbA1c values helped to identify potential diabetic subjects. Those with an FPG > or =6.1 mmol/l and HbA1c > or =6.1% had a rate of progression to diabetes more than five times higher than those with an FPG <6.1 mmol/l and an HbA1c <6.1% after a mean follow-up of 1.6 years. Those with an FPG > or =6.1 but <7.0 mmol/l, especially if their HbA1c was > or =6.1%, should undergo an OGTT to confirm diabetes. Subjects with an FPG <6.1 mmol/l and/or an HbA1c <6.1% should have regular screening using the paired values of FPG and HbA1c.