Comparison of forced-choice and subjective probability scales measuring behavioral intentions

Psychol Rep. 2000 Feb;86(1):321-32. doi: 10.2466/pr0.2000.86.1.321.

Abstract

Three surveys compared the accuracy of predictions based on forced-choice and subjective probability scales. The latter produced significantly more accurate election predictions and significantly reduced the percentage of undecided, or "Don't Know" responses, compared to forced-choice scales in all three surveys. Analysis indicates subjective probability scales decrease sampling error and confirms there is an inherent source of error in traditional forced-choice questions about voting intentions not attributable to sampling error. The results are discussed with respect to (1) sampling and measurement errors in forced-choice and subjective probability scales measuring behavioral intentions, (2) their practical application, and (3) cognitive theory, especially support theory.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Attitude*
  • Choice Behavior*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Motivation*
  • Personality Inventory / statistics & numerical data*
  • Psychometrics
  • Reproducibility of Results