Aim: To investigate which factors predict outcome of elderly patients on discharge and at 6 months.
Methods: A prospective study in an acute geriatric ward. Within 48 h of admission, patients were assessed for social factors, geriatric problems, admission diagnoses, medication, function and mental ability. Outcome measures were mortality, length of stay, institutionalization, readmissions and attendance at accident and emergency within 6 months.
Results: 353 patients were studied, with a mean age of 81.8 years. Logistic regression analyses showed that variables predicting hospital mortality were Barthel index on admission, pre-morbid disability and polypharmacy. The only variable independently predictive of prolonged stay in hospital was a Barthel score of <45 on admission. Functional disability on admission was predictive of institutionalization on discharge. Variables predicting mortality within 6 months of discharge were Barthel index on admission <65, presence of pressure sores, malnutrition and polypharmacy. Variables independently predictive of institutionalization were mental state and a low pension. Those who took more than five drugs on admission were more likely to attend accident and emergency and be readmitted.
Conclusion: Limited activities of daily living and geriatric problems on admission are the strongest predictive factors of outcome, independent of diagnoses.