Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

Lixiang Li; Zihang Yang; Zhongkai Dang; Cui Meng; Jingze Huang; Haotian Meng; Deyu Wang; Guanhua Chen; Jiaxuan Zhang; Haipeng Peng; Yiming Shao

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.002

Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

Infect Dis Model. 2020:5:282-292. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.002. Epub 2020 Mar 31.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, 100876, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Beijing, China.

Abstract

Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small. At the same time, it realized forward prediction and backward inference of the epidemic situation, and the relevant analysis help relevant countries to make decisions.

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemic control; Short-term forecast.