Purpose: To compare twenty-two machine learning (ML) models against logistic regression on survival prediction in severe traumatic brain injury (STBI) patients in a single center study.
Materials and methods: Data was collected from STBI patients admitted to the Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital between December 2009 and November 2011. Twenty-two machine learning (ML) models were tested, and their predictive performance compared with logistic regression (LR) model. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC), area under curve (AUC), accuracy, F-score, precision, recall and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) were used as performance metrics.
Results: A total of 117 patients were enrolled. AUC of all ML models ranged from 86.3% to 94%. AUC of LR was 83%, and accuracy was 88%. The AUC of Cubic SVM, Quadratic SVM and Linear SVM were higher than that of LR. The precision ratio of LR was 95% and recall ratio was 91%, both were lower than most ML models. The F-Score of LR was 0.93, which was only slightly better than that of Linear Discriminant and Quadratic Discriminant.
Conclusions: The twenty-two ML models selected have capabilities comparable to classical LR model for outcome prediction in STBI patients. Of these, Cubic SVM, Quadratic SVM, Linear SVM performed significantly better than LR.
Keywords: Critical illness; Logistic regression; Machine learning; Support vector machine; Survival prediction; Traumatic brain injury.
Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Inc.