[Spatial and temporal variations of landscape ecological risk in the dry and hot valley of the Jinsha River during 2000-2020]

Scientific assessment of landscape ecological risk in ecologically fragile areas of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is of great significance to regional ecological regulation and construction of the Yangtze River ecological security barrier. With the dry-hot valley area of Jinsha River in Yunnan Province as the research area, we constructed a landscape ecological risk evaluation model, and analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of regional landscape ecological risk. The results showed that the average values of landscape ecological risk index (LER) in the study area were 0.414, 0.398, and 0.462 in 2000, 2010 and 2020, respectively. The LER value of the whole region had reached a higher risk level by 2020. In 2000 and 2010, the landscape ecological risk zones of each level were staggered, and the high-risk zones showed a centralized distribution in 2020. During the two decades, the average LER of each section in the study area was around 0.42, which was close to the high risk level, indicating high landscape ecological risk level. The area of middle and low risk zones had decreased, while the area of high risk zone had significantly increased. The area of high risk zone in the western and middle sections was much higher than that in the eastern section. The area with significant changes of landscape ecological risk accounted for about 55% of the total study area, with obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics of significant increase and decrease of risk. The competition between government-led ecological management policies and measures and market-led land use activities was the main cause of landscape ecological risk variations in this region. In the future, the driving mechanism of climate change coupled with human activities on global and local landscape ecological risk changes in the study area should be uncovered to effectively cope with regional ecological risks.