Predicting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and determining the follow-up period in high-risk human papillomavirus patients

Purpose: Despite strong efforts to promote human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine and cervical cancer screening, cervical cancer remains a threat to women's reproductive health. Some high-risk HPV types play a crucial role in the progression of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions. Therefore, HPV screening has become an important means to prevent, diagnose, and triage cervical cancer. This study aims to leverage artificial intelligence to predict individual risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in women with high-risk HPV infection and to recommend the appropriate triage strategy and follow-up period according to the risk level.

Materials and methods: A total of 475 cases were collected in this study. The sources were from the Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics in a tertiary hospital, a case report on HPV from the PubMed website, and clinical data of cervical cancer patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Through in-depth study of the interaction between high-risk HPV and its risk factors, the risk factor relationship diagram structure was constructed. A Classification of Lesion Stages (CLS) algorithm was designed to predict cervical lesion stages. The risk levels of patients were analyzed based on all risk factors, and follow-up periods were formulated for each risk level.

Results: Our proposed CLS algorithm predicted the probability of occurrence of CIN3-the precancerous lesion stage of cervical cancer. This prediction was based on patients' HPV-16 and -18 infection status, age, presence of persistent infection, and HPV type. Follow-up periods of 3-6 months, 6-12 months, and 3- to 5-year intervals were suggested for high-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk patients, respectively.

Conclusion: A lesion prediction model was constructed to determine the probabilities of occurrence of CIN by analyzing individual data, such as patient lifestyle, physical assessments, and patient complaints, in order to identify high-risk patients. Furthermore, the potential implications of the calculated features were mined to devise prevention strategies.