Global pattern, trend, and cross-country inequality of early musculoskeletal disorders from 1990 to 2019, with projection from 2020 to 2050

GBD 2019 MSK in Adolescents Collaborators. Electronic address: dongze_wu@163.com; GBD 2019 MSK in Adolescents Collaborators

doi:10.1016/j.medj.2024.04.009

Global pattern, trend, and cross-country inequality of early musculoskeletal disorders from 1990 to 2019, with projection from 2020 to 2050

Med. 2024 May 30:S2666-6340(24)00179-X. doi: 10.1016/j.medj.2024.04.009. Online ahead of print.

Authors

GBD 2019 MSK in Adolescents Collaborators. Electronic address: dongze_wu@163.com; GBD 2019 MSK in Adolescents Collaborators

Collaborators

Yingzhao Jin, Cui Guo, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Mitra Abbasifard, J Haxby Abbott, Auwal Abdullahi, Aidin Abedi, Hassan Abidi, Hassan Abolhassani, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Salahdein Aburuz, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oyelola A Adegboye, Abiola Victor Adepoju, Wirawan Adikusuma, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Shahin Aghamiri, Danish Ahmad, Ayman Ahmed, Janardhana P Aithala, Shiva Akhlaghi, Sreelatha Akkala, Tariq A Alalwan, Mohammed Albashtawy, Hediyeh Alemi, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa, Endale Alemayehu Ali, Sami Almustanyir, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Hosam Alzahrani, Karem H Alzoubi, Sohrab Amiri, Hubert Amu, Jimoh Amzat, David B Anderson, Abhishek Anil, Benny Antony, Jalal Arabloo, Damelash Areda, Al Artaman, Anton A Artamonov, Krishna K Aryal, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Tahira Ashraf, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Bantalem Tilaye Atinafu, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout, Sina Azadnajafabad, Hamed Azhdari Tehrani, Ahmed Y Azzam, Alaa Badawi, Nayereh Baghcheghi, Ruhai Bai, Vali Baigi, Maciej Banach, Morteza Banakar, Biswajit Banik, Mainak Bardhan, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Azadeh Bashiri, Kavita Batra, Mojtaba Bayani, Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn, Ahmet Begde, Kebede A Beyene, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Rajbir Bhatti, Ali Bijani, Veera R Bitra, Javier Brazo-Sayavera, Rachelle Buchbinder, Katrin Burkart, Yasser Bustanji, Muhammad Hammad Butt, Luis Alberto Cámera, Felix Carvalho, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Akhilanand Chaurasia, Guangjin Chen, Haowei Chen, Lingxiao Chen, Steffan Wittrup McPhee Christensen, Dinh-Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Josielli Comachio, Natália Cruz-Martins, Sarah Cuschieri, Sriharsha Dadana, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Zhaoli Dai, Saswati Das, Mohsen Dashti, Ivan Delgado-Enciso, Biniyam Demisse, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Belay Desye, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, Sameer Dhingra, Mengistie Diress, Thanh Chi Do, Thao Huynh Phuong Do, Khanh Duy Khanh Doan, Sulagna Dutta, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Hisham Atan Edinur, Michael Ekholuenetale, Muhammed Elhadi, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Francesco Esposito, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Parisa Farokh, Ali Fatehizadeh, Alireza Feizkhah, Ginenus Fekadu, Nuno Ferreira, Getahun Fetensa, Florian Fischer, Behzad Foroutan, Masoumeh Foroutan Koudehi, Richard Charles Franklin, Takeshi Fukumoto, Aravind P Gandhi, Balasankar Ganesan, Shuo-Yan Gau, Rupesh K Gautam, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Miglas W W Gebregergis, Bardiya Ghaderi Yazdi, Ali Gholami, Tiffany K Gill, Pouya Goleij, Mansueto Gomes-Neto, Anmol Goyal, Simon Matthew Graham, Bin Guan, Bhawna Gupta, Indarchand Ratanlal Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Farrokh Habibzadeh, Wase Benti Hailu, Ramtin Hajibeygi, Rabih Halwani, Josep Maria Haro, Jan Hartvigsen, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Johannes Haubold, Jeffrey J Hebert, Mohamed I Hegazy, Golnaz Heidari, Mohammad Heidari, Kamal Hezam, Yuta Hiraike, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Amir Human Hoveidaei, Chi-Jen Hsu, Md Nazmul Huda, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Adalia I Ikiroma, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Arad Iranmehr, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Hiroyasu Iso, Masao Iwagami, Assefa N Iyasu, Louis Jacob, Abdollah Jafarzadeh, Kasra Jahankhani, Nityanand Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Balamurugan Janakiraman, Umesh Jayarajah, Shubha Jayaram, Jayakumar Jeganathan, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B Jonas, Tamas Joo, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Gebisa Guyasa Kabito, Vineet Kumar Kamal, Himal Kandel, Rami S Kantar, Jafar Karami, Ibraheem M Karaye, Arman Karimi Behnagh, Navjot Kaur, Foad Kazemi, Shemsu Kedir, Mohamad Mehdi Khadembashiri, Mohammad Amin Khadembashiri, Yousef Saleh Khader, Himanshu Khajuria, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Moien Ab Khan, Mahammed Ziauddin Khan Suheb, Haitham Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh, Sorour Khateri, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Mohammad Saeid Khonji, Jagdish Khubchandani, Saeid Kian, Adnan Kisa, Aiggan Tamene Kitila, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Hamid Reza Koohestani, Oleksii Korzh, Karel Kostev, Ashwin Laxmikant Kotnis, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Mohammed Kuddus, Narinder Kumar, Maria Dyah Kurniasari, Muhammad Awwal Ladan, Chandrakant Lahariya, Tri Laksono, Tea Lallukka, Iván Landires, Savita Lasrado, Basira Kankia Lawal, Thao Thi Thu Le, Trang Diep Thanh Le, Munjae Lee, Wei-Chen Lee, Yo Han Lee, Temesgen L Lerango, David Lim, Stephen S Lim, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Zheng Feei Ma, Azzam A Maghazachi, Nastaran Maghbouli, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Armaan Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani, Emmanuel Manu, Yasith Mathangasinghe, Antonio Mazzotti, Steven M McPhail, Belayneh Mengist, Mohamed Kamal Mesregah, Tomislav Mestrovic, Ted R Miller, Le Huu Nhat Minh, Mohammad Mirahmadi Eraghi, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Awoke Misganaw, Hashem Mohamadian, Ashraf Mohamadkhani, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Soheil Mohammadi, Mesud Mohammed, Hoda Mojiri-Forushani, Ali H Mokdad, Kaveh Momenzadeh, Sara Momtazmanesh, Lorenzo Monasta, Fateme Montazeri, Yousef Moradi, Shane Douglas Morrison, Ebrahim Mostafavi, Parsa Mousavi, Seyed Ehsan Mousavi, Admir Mulita, Efrén Murillo-Zamora, Ghulam Mustafa, Sathish Muthu, Ganesh R Naik, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Noureddin Nakhostin Ansari, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Shumaila Nargus, Paulo R C Nascimento, Amirreza Naseri, Zuhair S Natto, Muhammad Naveed, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Athare Nazri-Panjaki, Mohammad Negaresh, Hadush Negash, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Dang H Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Hien Quang Nguyen, Phat Tuan Nguyen, Van Thanh Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Akinyemi O D Ofakunrin, Hassan Okati-Aliabad, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Matthew Idowu Olatubi, Mohammad Mehdi Ommati, Michal Ordak, Mayowa O Owolabi, Mahesh P A, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Feng Pan, Ioannis Pantazopoulos, Seoyeon Park, Jay Patel, Shankargouda Patil, Shrikant Pawar, Paolo Pedersini, Prince Peprah, Simone Perna, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha, Hoang Tran Pham, Manon Pigeolet, Elton Junio Sady Prates, Fakher Rahim, Zahra Rahimi, Shahram Rahimi-Dehgolan, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Masoud Rahmati, Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy, Premkumar Ramasubramani, Deepthi Rapaka, Sina Rashedi, Vahid Rashedi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi, Ashkan Rasouli-Saravani, Salman Rawaf, Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Rezaei, Nima Rezaei, Zahed Rezaei, Abanoub Riad, Leonardo Roever, Sharareh Roshanzamir, Priyanka Roy, Guilherme de Andrade Ruela, Aly M A Saad, Basema Saddik, Farideh Sadeghian, Umar Saeed, Azam Safary, Amene Saghazadeh, Dominic Sagoe, Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari, Narjes Saheb Sharif-Askari, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Joseph W Sakshaug, Afeez Abolarinwa Salami, Mohamed A Saleh, Sana Salehi, Sara Samadzadeh, Yoseph Leonardo Samodra, Vijaya Paul Samuel, Djanilson B Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib, Aswini Saravanan, Susan Sawyer, Benedikt Michael Schaarschmidt, Sabyasachi Senapati, Yashendra Sethi, Allen Seylani, Amir Shafaat, Mahan Shafie, Saeed Shahabi, Ataollah Shahbandi, Shayan Shahrokhi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Muhammad Aaqib Shamim, Mohammad Ali Shamshirgaran, Sadaf Sharfaei, Amin Sharifan, Azam Sharifi, Rajendra Sharma, Saurab Sharma, Bereket Beyene Shashamo, Linhong Shi, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Velizar Shivarov, Emmanuel Edwar Siddig, Ehsan Sinaei, Ambrish Singh, Jasvinder A Singh, Paramdeep Singh, Surjit Singh, Shweta Singla, Md Shahjahan Siraj, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Ranjan Solanki, Yonatan Solomon, Antonina V Starodubova, Chandan Kumar Swain, Stella Talic, Nathan Y Tat, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Dufera Rikitu Terefa, Riki Tesler, Rekha Thapar, Samar Tharwat, Rasiah Thayakaran, Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Biruk Shalmeno Tusa, Sree Sudha Ty, Aniefiok John Udoakang, Seyed Mohammad Vahabi, Rohollah Valizadeh, Jef Van den Eynde, Shoban Babu Varthya, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Jorge Hugo Villafañe, Vasily Vlassov, Anh Truc Vo, Linh Gia Vu, Yuan-Pang Wang, Taweewat Wiangkham, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Ai-Min Wu, Ali Yadollahpour, Galal Yahya, Naohiro Yonemoto, Yuyi You, Mustafa Z Younis, Fathiah Zakham, Moein Zangiabadian, Armin Zarrintan, Chenwen Zhong, Hengxing Zhou, Zhaochen Zhu, Magdalena Zielińska, Yossef Teshome Zikarg, Osama A Zitoun, Mohammad Zoladl, Lai-Shan Tam, Dongze Wu

PMID: 38834074
DOI: 10.1016/j.medj.2024.04.009

Abstract

Background: This study aims to estimate the burden, trends, forecasts, and disparities of early musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders among individuals ages 15 to 39 years.

Methods: The global prevalence, years lived with disabilities (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), projection, and inequality were estimated for early MSK diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), osteoarthritis (OA), low back pain (LBP), neck pain (NP), gout, and other MSK diseases (OMSKDs).

Findings: More adolescents and young adults were expected to develop MSK disorders by 2050. Across five age groups, the rates of prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs for RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs sharply increased from ages 15-19 to 35-39; however, these were negligible for OA before age 30 but increased notably at ages 30-34, rising at least 6-fold by 35-39. The disease burden of gout, LBP, and OA attributable to high BMI and gout attributable to kidney dysfunction increased, while the contribution of smoking to LBP and RA and occupational ergonomic factors to LBP decreased. Between 1990 and 2019, the slope index of inequality increased for six MSK disorders, and the relative concentration index increased for gout, NP, OA, and OMSKDs but decreased for LBP and RA.

Conclusions: Multilevel interventions should be initiated to prevent disease burden related to RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs among individuals ages 15-19 and to OA among individuals ages 30-34 to tightly control high BMI and kidney dysfunction.

Funding: The Global Burden of Disease study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project is funded by the Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Keywords: Global Burden of Disease study; Translation to population health; gout; inequality; low back pain; musculoskeletal disorders; neck pain; osteoarthritis; pattern; rheumatoid arthritis; trend.