[Dynamics and driving forces of main vegetation types in the Saihanba Nature Reserve, Hebei Province, China]

To explore the changes of vegetation landscape pattern and its driving mechanism in Saihanba Nature Reserve, we analyzed vegetation type changes from 1989 to 2013 and the driving factors using random forest and Logistic regression models in conjunction with land dynamic degree indicator, based on three Landsat TM imageries obtained in 1989, 2000 and 2013. The results showed that the proportion of shrubland was always small in this area from 1989 to 2013. During 1989-2013, the proportion of shrubland rapidly decreased and plantation area significantly increased, while the area of grassland and natural secondary forest slightly changed. Key driving factors for the vegetation dynamics were dependent on vegetation type and time. The change of each vegetation type from 1989 to 2000 was significantly influenced by social factors, i.e. distance to road and total investment of afforestation. Since the implementation of the Natural Forest Protection Project and establishment of Saihanba Nature Reserve, the role of natural factors including elevation and aspect gradually became more important during the 2000-2013. The vegetation landscape dynamics were primarily determined by social activities, while the distribution patterns of vegetation types were probably controlled by natural factors in the study area.