Assessment of future water demand and supply using WEAP model in Dhasan River Basin, Madhya Pradesh, India

Understanding the available resources and the needs of those who use them is necessary for the evaluation and allocation of water resources. The main sectors utilizing the basin water resources are agriculture, drinking water, animal husbandry, and industries, and the efficient and rational management of water resources to be distributed among those different sectors of activity is vital. This study attempts to develop an integrated water resource management system for the Dhasan River Basin (DRB) by employing a scenario analysis approach in conjunction with Water Evaluation and Planning Model (WEAP) to analyze trends in water use and anticipated demand between 2015 and 2050, simulating five possible scenarios (I, II, III, IV, and V) as for external driving factors. For the WEAP modeling framework, 2015 was chosen as a current (base) year for which all available information and input data were given to the model and the future demand situation was analyzed for the period 2016-2050 (forecasting period). From the findings, it was observed that for the forecasting period, total water demand, unmet demand, and streamflow were 185.29 Bm³, 117.35 Bm³, and 58.26 Bm³, respectively, in the case of scenario I; 232.34 Bm³, 162.17 Bm³, and 59.87 Bm³ in case of scenario II; 139.40 Bm³, 84.37 Bm³, and 58.15 Bm³ in case of scenario III; 186.15 Bm³, 118.76 Bm³, and 56.98 Bm³ in case of scenario IV; and 181.89 Bm³, 96.87 Bm³, and 53.11 Bm³ in case of scenario V. Results of the study indicated that by 2050, increasing population growth, industrial development, and an increase in the agricultural area will rise the water demand dramatically, posing threats to the environment and humans. Therefore, implementing improved irrigation technologies, advancing agricultural practices on farms, and constructing water conservation and retaining structures could significantly reduce the unmet demands and shortfalls in DRB. Overall findings reveal that the pressure on the Dhasan water resources would increase in the future, and thus several suggestions have been provided to assist decision-makers in sustainable planning and management of water resources to meet future demands.