Assessment of land use and land cover change detection and prediction using deep learning techniques for the southwestern coastal region, Goa, India

Understanding the connections between human activities and the natural environment depends heavily on information about land use and land cover (LULC) in the form of accurate LULC maps. Environmental monitoring using deep learning (DL) is rapidly growing to preserve a sustainable environment in the long term. For establishing effective policies, regulations, and implementation, DL can be a valuable tool for assessing environmental conditions and natural resources that will positively impact the ecosystem. This paper presents the assessment of land use and land cover change detection (LULCCD) and prediction using DL techniques for the southwestern coastal region, Goa, also known as the tourist destination of India. It consists of three components: (i) change detection (CD), (ii) quantification of LULC changes, and (iii) prediction. A new CD assessment framework, Spatio-Temporal Encoder-Decoder Self Attention Network (STEDSAN), is proposed for the LULCCD process. A dual branch encoder-decoder network is constructed using strided convolution with downsampling for the encoder and transpose convolution with upsampling for the decoder to assess the bitemporal images spatially. The self-attention (SA) mechanism captures the complex global spatial-temporal (ST) interactions between individual pixels over space-time to produce more distinct features. Each branch accepts the LULC map of 2 years as one of its inputs to determine binary and multiclass changes among the bitemporal images. The STEDSAN model determines the patterns, trends, and conversion from one LULC type to another for the assessment period from 2005 to 2018. The binary change maps were also compared with the existing state of the art (SOTA) CD methods, with STEDSAN having an overall accuracy of 94.93%. The prediction was made using an recurrent neural network (RNN) known as long short term memory network (LSTM) for the year 2025. Experiments were conducted to determine area-wise changes in several LULC classes, such as built-up (BU), crops (kharif crop (KC), rabi crop (RC), zaid crop (ZC), double/triple (D/T C)), current fallow (CF), plantation (PL), forests (evergreen forest (EF), deciduous forest (DF), degraded/scurb forest (D/SF) ), littoral swamp (LS), grassland (GL), wasteland (WL), waterbodies max (Wmx), and waterbodies min (Wmn). As per the analysis, over the period of 13 years, there has been a net increase in the amount of BU (1.25%), RC (1.17%), and D/TC( 2.42%) and a net decrease in DF (3.29%) and WL(1.44%) being the most dominant classes being changed. These findings will offer a thorough description of identifying trends in coastal areas that may incorporate methodological hints for future studies. This study will also promote handling the spatial and temporal complexity of remotely sensed data employed in categorizing the coastal LULC of a heterogeneous landscape.