Recent studies have demonstrated that the brain activity of a group of people can be used to forecast choices at the population level. In this study, we attempted to neuroforecast aggregate consumer behavior of Internet users. During our electroencephalography (EEG) and eye-tracking study, participants were exposed to 10 banners that were also used in the real digital marketing campaign. In the separate online study, we additionally collected self-reported preferences for the same banners. We explored the relationship between the EEG, eye-tracking, and behavioral indexes obtained in our studies and the banners' aggregate efficiency provided by the large food retailer based on the decisions of 291,301 Internet users. An EEG-based engagement index (central beta/alpha ratio) significantly correlated with the aggregate efficiency of banners. Furthermore, our multiple linear regression models showed that a combination of eye-tracking, EEG and behavioral measurements better explained the market-level efficiency of banner advertisements than each measurement alone. Overall, our results confirm that neural signals of a relatively small number of individuals can forecast aggregate behavior at the population level.
Keywords: EEG; consumer neuroscience; eye tracking; neuroforecasting; neuromarketing.