Identification of Risk Factors to Predict the Occurrences of Relapses in Individuals with Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorder in Iran

Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorder (SSD) is a chronic psychiatric disorder with a modest treatment outcome. In addition, relapses are commonplace. Here, we sought to identify factors that predict relapse latency and frequency. To this end, we retrospectively analyzed data for individuals with SSD. Medical records of 401 individuals with SSD were analyzed (mean age: 25.51 years; 63.6% males) covering a five-year period. Univariate and multivariate Penalized Likelihood Models with Shared Log-Normal Frailty were used to determine the correlation between discharge time and relapse and to identify risk factors. A total of 683 relapses were observed in males, and 422 relapses in females. The Relapse Hazard Ratio (RHR) decreased with age (RHR = 0.99, CI: (0.98-0.998)) and with participants' adherence to pharmacological treatment (HR = 0.71, CI: 0.58-0.86). In contrast, RHR increased with a history of suicide attempts (HR = 1.32, CI: 1.09-1.60), and a gradual compared to a sudden onset of disease (HR = 1.45, CI: 1.02-2.05). Gender was not predictive. Data indicate that preventive and therapeutic interventions may be particularly important for individuals who are younger at disease onset, have a history of suicide attempts, have experienced a gradual onset of disease, and have difficulties adhering to medication.