Information about seed dispersal effectiveness (SDE) for plant species of conservation concern is rarely available to inform management strategies and actions. For Lindera subcoriacea (bog spicebush, Lauraceae), a rare endemic dioecious shrub of the southeastern United States, we examined the influence of two intrinsic and five extrinsic drivers on the number and proportion of seeds either dispersed, or predated pre- and post-dispersal. The number of seeds dispersed characterizes the quantitative component of SDE, while pre- and post-dispersal seed predation can affect the qualitative component of SDE. Using fruit counts, seed traps, and seed removal depots over multiple years, we estimated that approximately 28% of L. subcoriacea seeds are lost to pre-dispersal predation, 69% of seeds are dispersed, 3% of seeds fail to disperse, and 65% of dispersed seeds are predated post-dispersal. We observed substantial variation in these three processes among individuals. We also found that both intrinsic (plant height, crop size) and extrinsic (understory cover, time since last fire, conspecific fruiting neighborhood, substrate) drivers differentially influenced the three processes. We identified four generalist, seasonally frugivorous, avian visitors at fruiting individuals that likely act as variably effective dispersers, while the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis L.) is a seed predator. Rodent granivores were important pre- and post-dispersal seed predators. The magnitude of our pre-dispersal and post-dispersal seed predation estimates suggest that, given the low fecundity of L. subcoriacea, conservation strategies should emphasize facilitating dispersal and reducing the effects of seed predation.
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