An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China

Wen-Jing Zhu; Shou-Feng Shen

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104289

An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China

Results Phys. 2021 Jun:25:104289. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104289. Epub 2021 May 8.

Authors

Wen-Jing Zhu¹, Shou-Feng Shen²

Affiliations

¹ Affiliated Mental Health Center & Hangzhou Seventh People's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310013, China.
² Department of Applied Mathematics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China.

Abstract

In this letter, an improved SIR (ISIR) model is proposed, to analyze the spread of COVID-19 during the time window 21/01/2020-08/02/2021. The parameters can be extracted from an inverse problem of the ISIR to assess the risk of COVID-19. This study identifies that the cure rate is 0.05 and the reproduction number is 0.4490 during the time interval. The prediction values demonstrates high similarity to the reported data. The results indicate that the disease had been under control in China.

Keywords: COVID-19; Dynamic epidemic model; Inverse problem; Reproduction number; SIR model.