The mechanism linking the variability of the Antarctic sea ice extent in the Indian Ocean sector to Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Siti Syairah Atiqah Azhar; Sheeba Nettukandy Chenoli; Azizan Abu Samah; Seong-Joong Kim; Nuncio Murukesh

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06466-z

The mechanism linking the variability of the Antarctic sea ice extent in the Indian Ocean sector to Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Clim Dyn. 2023;60(9-10):2665-2685. doi: 10.1007/s00382-022-06466-z. Epub 2022 Aug 24.

Authors

Siti Syairah Atiqah Azhar^{1

2}, Sheeba Nettukandy Chenoli^{1

2

3}, Azizan Abu Samah^{1

2

3}, Seong-Joong Kim⁴, Nuncio Murukesh⁵

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Institute of Postgraduate Studies Building, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
² Research Management and Innovation Complex, National Antarctic Research Centre, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
³ Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
⁴ Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, 21990 Republic of Korea.
⁵ National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, Headland Sada, Vasco Da Gama, 403804 Goa India.

Abstract

The study investigates the mechanism of teleconnection between the variability of sea ice extent (SIE) in the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean and the variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. We utilized reanalysis, satellite, in-situ observation data, and model output from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) from 1979 to 2013. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analysis show that the first and third modes of principal component (PC1 and PC3) of SIE in the Indian Ocean sector during April-May-June (AMJ) are significantly correlated with the second mode of principal component (PC2) of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The reanalysis data revealed that the changes in the SIE in the Indian Ocean sector excite meridional wave train responses along the Indian Ocean for both principal component modes. Positive (negative) SIE anomalies based on first and third EOFs (EOF1 and EOF3), contribute to the strengthening (weakening) of the Polar, Ferrel, and Hadley cells, inducing stronger (weaker) convective activity over the Indian latitudes. The stronger (weaker) convective activity over the Indian region leads to more (less) rainfall over the region during high (low) ice phase years. Furthermore, a stronger (weaker) polar jet during the high (low) ice phase is also noted. The selected CMIP5 models captured certain atmospheric teleconnection features found in the reanalysis. During AMJ, the SIE simulated by the NorESM1-M model was significantly positively correlated with Indian summer monsoon rainfall, whereas the IPSL-CM54-LR model showed a negative correlation.

Keywords: Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) in the Indian Ocean sector; Convective activity; High ice phase; Indian summer monsoon rainfall; Low ice phase.

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