Rethinking Lockdown Policies in the Pre-Vaccine Era of COVID-19: A Configurational Perspective

The significance of lockdown policies for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic is widely recognized. However, most studies have focused on individual lockdown measures. The effectiveness of lockdown policy combinations has not been examined from a configurational perspective. This research applies fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to examine different lockdown policy combinations associated with high-epidemic situations in 84 countries. A high-epidemic situation can occur through three different "weak-confined" patterns of lockdown policy combinations. The findings demonstrate that a combination of lockdown policies is more successful than any single lockdown policy, whereas the absence of several key measures in policy combinations can lead to a high-epidemic situation. The importance of international travel controls can become obscured when they are the only measures adopted, and a high-epidemic situation can still arise where restrictions are placed on international travel but not on public transport or when workplaces are closed but schools remain open.