Climate change and climate variability are projected to alter the geographic suitability of lands for crop cultivation. Early awareness of the future climate of the current cultivation areas for a perennial tree crop like coconut is needed for its adaptation and sustainable cultivation in vulnerable areas. We analyzed coconut's vulnerability to climate change in India, based on climate projections for the 2050s and the 2070s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. Based on the current cultivation regions and climate change predictions from seven ensembles of Global Circulation Models, we predict changes in relative climatic suitability for coconut cultivation using the MaxEnt model. Bioclimatic variables Bio 4 (temperature seasonality, 34.4%) and Bio 7 (temperature annual range, 28.7%) together contribute 63.1%, which along with Bio 15 (precipitation seasonality, 8.6%) determined 71.7% of the climate suitability for coconuts in India. The model projected that some current coconut cultivation producing areas will become unsuitable (plains of South interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) requiring crop change, while other areas will require adaptations in genotypic or agronomic management (east coast and the south interior plains), and yet in others, the climatic suitability for growing coconut will increase (west coast). The findings suggest the need for adaptation strategies so as to ensure sustainable cultivation of coconut at least in presently cultivated areas.
Keywords: MaxEnt; climate change; coconut; high temperature; prediction; vulnerability.