Albedo changes caused by future urbanization contribute to global warming

Zutao Ouyang; Pietro Sciusco; Tong Jiao; Sarah Feron; Cheyenne Lei; Fei Li; Ranjeet John; Peilei Fan; Xia Li; Christopher A Williams; Guangzhao Chen; Chenghao Wang; Jiquan Chen

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31558-z

Albedo changes caused by future urbanization contribute to global warming

Nat Commun. 2022 Jul 1;13(1):3800. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31558-z.

Authors

Zutao Ouyang^{1

2}, Pietro Sciusco³, Tong Jiao⁴, Sarah Feron^{5

6

7}, Cheyenne Lei³, Fei Li⁸, Ranjeet John⁹, Peilei Fan¹⁰, Xia Li¹¹, Christopher A Williams⁴, Guangzhao Chen^{12

13}, Chenghao Wang⁵, Jiquan Chen¹⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA. ouyangzt@stanford.edu.
² Center for Global Change and Earth Observations and Department of Geography, Environment & Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA. ouyangzt@stanford.edu.
³ Center for Global Change and Earth Observations and Department of Geography, Environment & Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA.
⁴ Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA, 01610, USA.
⁵ Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
⁶ Campus Fryslan, University of Groningen, Wirdumerdijk 34, 8911 CE, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands.
⁷ Department of Physics, University of Santiago, Ave Bernardo OHiggins 3363, Santiago de Chile, Chile.
⁸ Grassland Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hohhot, 010010, China.
⁹ Department of Biology, and Department of Sustainability, University of South Dakota, Vermillion, SD, 57069, USA.
¹⁰ Center for Global Change and Earth Observations and School of Planning, Design, and Construction, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA.
¹¹ Key Lab of Geographic Information Science, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China.
¹² Division of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 999077, China.
¹³ Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 999077, China.
¹⁴ Center for Global Change and Earth Observations and Department of Geography, Environment & Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA. jqchen@msu.edu.

Abstract

The replacement of natural lands with urban structures has multiple environmental consequences, yet little is known about the magnitude and extent of albedo-induced warming contributions from urbanization at the global scale in the past and future. Here, we apply an empirical approach to quantify the climate effects of past urbanization and future urbanization projected under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find an albedo-induced warming effect of urbanization for both the past and the projected futures under three illustrative scenarios. The albedo decease from urbanization in 2018 relative to 2001 has yielded a 100-year average annual global warming of 0.00014 [0.00008, 0.00021] °C. Without proper mitigation, future urbanization in 2050 relative to 2018 and that in 2100 relative to 2018 under the intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) would yield a 100-year average warming effect of 0.00107 [0.00057,0.00179] °C and 0.00152 [0.00078,0.00259] °C, respectively, through altering the Earth's albedo.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Climate
Climate Change
Global Warming*
Urbanization*