The Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Influential Factors of NOx Emissions in China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

While the progress of China’s industrialization and urbanization has made great strides, atmospheric pollution has become the norm, with a wide range of influence and difficult governance. While many previous works on NOx pollution have been developed from the perspectives of natural science and technology, few studies have been conducted from social-economic points of view, and regional differences have not been given adequate attention in driving force models. This paper adopts China’s provincial panel data from 2006 to 2015, an extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model, and spatial econometric models to investigate the socio-economic influential factors and spatial-temporal patterns of NOx emissions. According to the spatial correlation analysis results, the provincial NOx emission changes not only affected the provinces themselves, but also neighboring regions. Spatial econometric analysis shows that the spatial effect largely contributes to NOx emissions. The other explanatory variables all have positive impacts on NOx emissions, except for the vehicular indicator (which did not pass the significance test). As shown through the estimated consequences of direct and indirect effects, the indicators have significant positive effects on their own areas, and exacerbate NOx pollution. In terms of indirect effects, only three factors passed the significant test. An increase in gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption will exacerbate adjacent NOx pollution. Finally, a series of socio-economic measures and regional cooperation policies should be applied to improve the current air environment in China.