Background and Objectives: Screening for type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) aims to identify asymptomatic individuals who may be at a higher risk, allowing proactive interventions. The objective of this study was to predict the incidence of DM2 and prediabetes in the Saudi population over the next five years. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in the Aseer region through August 2023 using a cross-sectional survey for data collection. A multistage stratified random sampling technique was adopted, and data were collected through face-to-face interviews using the validated Arabic version of the Australian Type 2 Diabetes Risk Assessment Tool (AUSDRISK). Results: In total, 652 individuals were included in the study. Their mean age was 32.0 ± 12.0 years; 53.8% were male, 89.6% were from urban areas, and 55.8% were single. There were statistically significant differences between males and females in AUSDRISK items, including age, history of high blood glucose, use of medications for high blood pressure, smoking, physical activity, and measurements of waist circumference (p < 0.05). Based on AUSDRISK scores, 46.2% of the included participants were predicted to develop impaired glucose tolerance within the coming five years (65.8% among females vs. 23.6%), and 21.9% were predicted to develop DM2 (35.6% among males vs. 6.0% among females); this difference was statistically significant (p = 0.0001). Conclusions: Urgent public health action is required to prevent the increasing epidemic of DM2 in Saudi Arabia.
Keywords: AUSDRISK; Saudi Arabia; diabetes mellitus; prediabetes; prediction.