Impact of Long-Term Floods on Spatial Dynamics of Myrmica scabrinodis, a Host Ant of a Highly Threatened Scarce Large Blue (Phengaris teleius)

Extensively used wet meadows with high species diversity are under threat in Europe by anthropogenic pressure. The increasing frequency of prolonged flooding is emerging as an additional threat to this fragile environment. In our study, we investigated how prolonged flooding affects the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics (through mortality and recolonization process) of the host ant species Myrmica scabrinodis, which is essential for the survival of the endangered Scarce large blue (Phengaris teleius). The study was conducted in the flood-prone Ljubljansko barje plain situated on the southern edge of the species' global range. Prolonged flooding in the study area, possibly affecting the past and current distribution of the host ant M. scabrinodis, was recorded in 2010, 2013, and 2017. In 2020, we set 160 ant traps to estimate the distribution of host ants in a system of meadows covering the entire gradient of flood history. Results indicate that M. scabrinodis survives the flooding for up to three days, starting to disappear if flooding persists longer. After the flooding recedes, ants gradually recolonize empty habitats from the surrounding upland refugia. Our spatial analyses predict that the average recolonization speed was about 29 m per year and that in a year, ants compensate for the mortality effects of 1.8 days of flooding by recolonization in a year. These results show that flooding should be considered as an additional (in some areas, a major) threat to the endangered P. teleius through its deleterious effects on the host ant species.