Water crisis in Iran: A system dynamics approach on water, energy, food, land and climate (WEFLC) nexus

Water scarcity is a highly complex, multifaceted and dynamic issue, which has become a severe global challenge. Water scarcity is a hyperconnected phenomenon and thus should be studied through nexus approach, however current water-energy-food (WEF) nexus underrepresents the impacts of land use change and climate change on water scarcity. Therefore, this study was investigated to expand the WEF nexus coverage of further systems, improving the accuracy of nexus models for decision-making and narrowing science-policy gap. Current study developed a water-energy-food-land-climate (WEFLC) nexus model to analyze the water scarcity. Modeling the complex behavior of water scarcity enables the analysis of the efficiency of some adaptation policies in addressing water scarcity and will provide suggestions for improving adaptation practices. The results showed that there is a substantial water supply-demand gap in study region, with an excess consumption of 62,361 million m³. Under baseline scenario, the gap between water supply and demand will enlarge, leading to water crisis in Iran as our study region. Climate change was found to be the prime cause of exacerbating water scarcity in Iran, raising evapotranspiration from 70 % to 85 % in 50 years, and considerably increasing the water demand in various sectors. In terms of policy/adaptation measure analysis, the results showed that neither supply-side nor demand-side scenarios could solely address water crisis, and mixed supply-demand side interventions can be the most effective policy to alleviate water crisis. Overall, the study suggests that water resource management practices and policies in Iran should be reevaluated to include a system thinking management approach. The results can be used as a decision support tool that can recommend suitable mitigation and adaptation strategies for water scarcity in the country.