A theoretical model for simulation of airborne depth-sounding lidar is presented with the purpose of analyzing the influence from water surface waves on the ability to detect 1-m3 targets placed on the sea bottom. Although water clarity is the main limitation, sea surface waves can significantly affect the detectability. The detection probability for a target at a 9-m depth can be above 90% at 1-m/s wind and below 80% at 6-m/s wind for the same water clarity. The simulation model contains both numerical and analytical components. Simulated data are compared with measured data and give realistic results for bottom depths between 3 and 10 m.