Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using prognostic tools and regression analysis

Cristina Ghinea; Elena Niculina Drăgoi; Elena-Diana Comăniţă; Marius Gavrilescu; Teofil Câmpean; Silvia Curteanu; Maria Gavrilescu

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.07.026

Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using prognostic tools and regression analysis

J Environ Manage. 2016 Nov 1:182:80-93. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.07.026. Epub 2016 Jul 22.

Authors

Cristina Ghinea¹, Elena Niculina Drăgoi², Elena-Diana Comăniţă³, Marius Gavrilescu⁴, Teofil Câmpean⁵, Silvia Curteanu⁶, Maria Gavrilescu⁷

Affiliations

¹ "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Faculty of Food Engineering, 13 Universitatii Street, 720229, Suceava, Romania; "Gheorghe Asachi" Technical University of Iasi, Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Environmental Protection, Department of Environmental Engineering and Management, 73 Prof.Dr.Docent D. Mangeron Str., 700050, Iasi, Romania. Electronic address: cristina.ghinea@fia.usv.ro.
² "Gheorghe Asachi" Technical University of Iasi, Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Environmental Protection, Department of Chemical Engineering, 73 Prof.Dr.Docent D. Mangeron Str., 700050, Iasi, Romania. Electronic address: elena.dragoi@tuiasi.ro.
³ "Gheorghe Asachi" Technical University of Iasi, Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Environmental Protection, Department of Environmental Engineering and Management, 73 Prof.Dr.Docent D. Mangeron Str., 700050, Iasi, Romania; "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" University of Iasi, 11 Carol I Street, 700506, Iasi, Romania. Electronic address: ed.comanita@tuiasi.ro.
⁴ "Gheorghe Asachi" Technical University of Iasi, Faculty of Automatic Control and Computer Engineering, Department of Computer Engineering, 27 Prof.Dr.Docent D. Mangeron Str., 700050, Iasi, Romania. Electronic address: mariusgav@tuiasi.ro.
⁵ "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Faculty of Food Engineering, 13 Universitatii Street, 720229, Suceava, Romania; Rondocarton SRL, 2 Aviatorilor Street, 407042, Apahida, Cluj-Napoca, Romania. Electronic address: Teofil.Campean@rondo-ganahl.com.
⁶ "Gheorghe Asachi" Technical University of Iasi, Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Environmental Protection, Department of Chemical Engineering, 73 Prof.Dr.Docent D. Mangeron Str., 700050, Iasi, Romania. Electronic address: scurtean@ch.tuiasi.ro.
⁷ "Gheorghe Asachi" Technical University of Iasi, Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Environmental Protection, Department of Environmental Engineering and Management, 73 Prof.Dr.Docent D. Mangeron Str., 700050, Iasi, Romania; Academy of Romanian Scientists, 54 Splaiul Independentei, RO-050094, Bucharest, Romania. Electronic address: mgav@tuiasi.ro.

PMID: 27454099
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.07.026

Abstract

For an adequate planning of waste management systems the accurate forecast of waste generation is an essential step, since various factors can affect waste trends. The application of predictive and prognosis models are useful tools, as reliable support for decision making processes. In this paper some indicators such as: number of residents, population age, urban life expectancy, total municipal solid waste were used as input variables in prognostic models in order to predict the amount of solid waste fractions. We applied Waste Prognostic Tool, regression analysis and time series analysis to forecast municipal solid waste generation and composition by considering the Iasi Romania case study. Regression equations were determined for six solid waste fractions (paper, plastic, metal, glass, biodegradable and other waste). Accuracy Measures were calculated and the results showed that S-curve trend model is the most suitable for municipal solid waste (MSW) prediction.

Keywords: Modeling; Prognosis; Regression; Software; Solid waste; Trend analysis.

MeSH terms

Decision Making
Forecasting / methods*
Models, Theoretical
Prognosis
Refuse Disposal / methods*
Regression Analysis
Romania
Solid Waste / analysis
Solid Waste / statistics & numerical data*
Waste Management / methods*

Substances

Solid Waste