Carbon variation of dry grasslands in Central Asia in response to climate controls and grazing appropriation

Quantification of grassland carbon (C) variations is necessary for understanding how grazing and climate change interact to regulate carbon capture and release. Central Asia (CA) has the largest temperate grassland belt in the world and unique temperate dryland ecosystems, which experienced severe climate change and grazing-induced disturbances. However, the impact of grazing on C dynamics is highly uncertain owing to climate variations. Here, an arid ecosystem model (AEM) supplemented with a grazing module that specifically addressed physiological and ecological characteristics of dryland vegetation was developed to quantitatively simulate grassland C dynamics in response to changes in precipitation, temperature, grazing intensity, and CO₂ level in the past decades. The regional simulation results showed that net primary productivity (NPP) was affected mainly by precipitation (in 59% of the studied area). Grazing had a negative effect on NPP and C stocks, whereas overcompensation occurred in 25.71% of the studied area, mainly in the dry western parts. The complex interaction effects of climate, CO₂, and grazing negatively affected productivity, with a grassland NPP decrease of - 1.14 g C/m²/a and high interannual variability. We found that the temporal pattern of cumulative C sequestration, especially total C and vegetation C (VEGC), closely followed the annual fluctuations of precipitation. VEGC stocks decreased from 182.22 to 177.82 g C/m², with a very low value between 1998 and 2008, when precipitation significantly decreased. The results indicate that southern Xinjiang and the Turgay Plateau of Kazakhstan are ecologically fragile areas due to grassland degradation.