We develop and apply our methodology to estimate the overburdening of hospitals in Bulgaria during the upcoming delta surge. We base our estimations on an exponential risk model from the UK. Still, the methodology is generally applicable to all risk models, depending on age. Our hypothesis is that during the delta wave in Bulgaria, the system experienced a burden from late August due to decreased capacity. This will explain most of the excess mortality during the wave. We estimate the number of people from the active cases in need of hospitalization and intensive care.
Keywords: COVID-19; excess mortality; health system capacity; hospitalization risk.