Evaluation of Active Labor Market Policy Reform: Employment Outcomes of Vocational Rehabilitation Services

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the Estonian active labor market reform in 2016, which introduced a new policy concerning vocational rehabilitation services. As a research question, we investigate how such services may have affected the employment outcomes of people with mental and/or physical impairments.

Methods: Our sample includes 9244 people from 2016 to 2020, with a mean age of 46 years. Due to multiple entries to the services, we have more than 11,000 cases with over 100,000 monthly observations. We use propensity score matching in combination with fixed effects panel regressions to analyze how the completion of the scheduled rehabilitation plan affected monthly employment duration.

Results: Our findings indicate that completing the rehabilitation service results on average in 2.6 months longer post-rehabilitation employment, compared to matched individuals who discontinued the service. This effect was larger when already employed and male participants entered the service, while weaker effects were observed in the case of individuals with only mental disabilities.

Conclusions: Overall, we conclude that while completing the scheduled rehabilitation plan has a positive effect on employment outcomes, still maintaining employment status seems to remain a challenge, based on the relatively modest effect sizes. Thus, we question the economic arguments behind the reform.