Research on the coordinated development of provincial urbanization and carbon emission efficiency of construction industry in China

Background: Energy conservation and emission reduction policies restrict the economic and social development of all countries in the world, and the impact on China, which has low urbanization, is more serious. In the process of promoting urbanization, the pressure of carbon emission reduction in the construction industry has increased, and the high emissions of the construction industry have made the low-carbon development of cities face severe challenges. China is at a critical stage of urbanization development, and there is become a general consensus on how to improve the carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry. The interaction between urbanization and the carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry is a long-term and complex process. As one of the industries contributing to China's urbanization process and carbon emissions, it is of great practical significance to explore the coordination relationship between urbanization and the carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry (CEECI) to realize the goal of "double carbon", promoting urbanization construction and solving the problem of "green development". Taking 30 provinces in China as the research target area, the double weighted summation method and the undesirable output superefficiency window-EBM-DEA model are used to measure the provincial urbanization level and CEECI, respectively. Then, the coupling coordination degree model of the relative development index is introduced, and the spatial autocorrelation model and the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of the coordination level of urbanization and the CEECI are analysed.

Results: From 2010 to 2021, China's urbanization level increased steadily, but the growth rate gradually decreased. There were significant differences in urbanization levels among provinces. The eastern provinces have a higher level of urbanization but lack an impetus in the later period, while the western provinces have a lower level of urbanization but a faster growth rate. The low-carbon development trend of China's construction industry is good, and the overall development of the CEECI shows an "N" type, and the inflection points appear in 2013 and 2018. The interprovincial urbanization level is significantly different from that of the CEECI, and the development form of the central and western provinces is better than that of the eastern provinces. The coordination level of urbanization and the CEECI in China is transitioning from the running-in stage to the coordination stage, and the coupling coordination degree between systems is on the rise, while the relative development degree is on the decline. The spatial distribution pattern is in a dynamic state of change, and the overall distribution pattern is "high in the east and low in the central and western regions". The differences among provinces were significantly decreased, with 63.33% of provinces at the high running-in level. The provinces that entered the coordination stage were mainly located in the eastern region, and only Beijing was in the coordination stage by the end of the study. In addition, 90% of the provinces exhibited lagging efficiency, and only Jiangxi, Guangxi and Chongqing, which had low coordination levels maintained synchronous development of the two systems. The coordination level between provincial urbanization and the CEECI showed a positive spatial distribution, the global Moran index showed a "V" shape trend, and the spatial dependence of the coordination level between the two systems gradually weakened. In the local spatial distribution, there are two types of convergence: high and low.

Conclusions: The coordination degree of urbanization and the CEECI analysed in this study is an extension of the research on the relationship between the two. By integrating the two into a unified framework, the method of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis is used to further explore the coordination relationship between the two, which not only enhances the scientificity and accuracy of the research but also extends the breadth and depth of relevant theoretical research. At the same time, according to the coordination type between urbanization and the CEECI, China should propose corresponding targeted coordination and optimization paths from the perspective of urbanization and low-carbon development of the construction industry to achieve high-quality development of China's economy and society.