Exploring the low-carbon transition pathway of China's construction industry under carbon-neutral target: A socio-technical system transition theory perspective

The carbon emissions growth in the construction industry hinders the achievement of global carbon-neutral target, especially in China. Studies suggest that developing low-carbon technologies is an effective means of achieving the low-carbon transition (LCT) in the construction industry. However, these studies ignore the fact that the LCT is a complex and systemic issue that needs to consider the interaction of technical and non-technical factors. Thus, based on the socio-technical system transition theory, this study identified the influencing factors and constructs a dynamics model to simulate the dynamic changes of the LCT in China's construction industry under different scenarios. The results showed that multi-level factors coordinated to drive the LCT of the construction industry. Environmental factors played a weak role and the effectiveness of government intervention decreased with the transition process. On the contrary, technological and market factors were indispensable drivers and especially played a dominant role during the later stages of the transition. Finally, the LCT pathway of China's construction industry was proposed based on the results. These findings expand the boundary of theoretical research on industrial transition and provide a decision-making reference for the advancement of international carbon-neutral work.