Keeping Lagocephalus sceleratus off the Table: Sources of Variation in the Quantity of TTX, TTX Analogues, and Risk of Tetrodotoxication

The invasion of the tetrodotoxin (TTX)-bearing silver-cheeked toadfish and potential poisoning due to its consumption (tetrodotoxication) threatens public safety in the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, TTX and TTX analogues of Lagocephalus sceleratus (Gmelin, 1789) were measured using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) in fish collected off the island of Crete (Southern Mediterranean). We tested the synergistic effect of a suite of factors potentially affecting toxins' levels and tetrodotoxication risk using general and generalized linear models, respectively. The type of tissue, geographic origin (Cretan Sea, Libyan Sea), sex, and fish maturity stage were significant predictors of toxin concentrations. Mean TTX was higher in gonads and lower in muscles, higher in the Libyan Sea and in female fish, and lower in juvenile (virgin) fish. The concentration of TTX was also significantly and positively correlated with the concentration of several TTX analogues (4-epiTTX, 4,9-anhydroTTX, 11-deoxyTTX, 5,11/6,11-dideoxyTTX, 5,6,11-trideoxyTTX, 11-norTTX-6-ol). The analysis showed that fish originating from the Libyan Sea had significantly higher probability to cause tetrodotoxication in case of consumption. The variability explained by the models developed in this study was relatively low, indicating that toxin levels are hard to predict and the consumption of L. sceleratus should therefore be avoided.