Developmental Origins of Cardiovascular Disease: Understanding High Mortality Rates in the American South

While many social scientists view heart disease as the outcome of current conditions, this cannot fully explain the significant geographic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates in the USA. The developmental origins hypothesis proposes that CVD vulnerability is created by poor conditions in utero that underbuilds major organs relative to those needed to process lush nutrition later in life. The American South underwent an economic transformation from persistent poverty to rapid economic growth in the post-World War II era. We use state-level data on income growth and current conditions to explain variation in CVD mortality rates in 2010-2011. Our proxy for unbalanced physical growth, the ratio of median household income in 1980 to that in 1950, has a large systematic influence on CVD mortality, an impact that increases dramatically with age. The income ratio combined with smoking, obesity, healthcare access, and education explain more than 70% of the variance in CVD mortality rates.