Epigenome-wide development and validation of a prognostic methylation score in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma based on machine learning strategies

Background: Clinical parameter-based nomograms and staging systems provide limited information for the prediction of survival in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) patients. In this study, we developed a methylation signature that precisely predicts overall survival (OS) after surgery.

Methods: An epigenome-wide study of DNA methylation based on whole-genome bisulfite sequencing (WGBS) was conducted for two independent cohorts (discovery cohort, n=164; validation cohort, n=170) from three hepatobiliary centers in China. By referring to differentially methylated regions (DMRs), we proposed the concept of prognostically methylated regions (PMRs), which were composed of consecutive prognostically methylated CpGs (PMCs). Using machine learning strategies (Random Forest and the least absolute shrinkage and selector regression), a prognostic methylation score (PMS) was constructed based on 14 PMRs in the discovery cohort and confirmed in the validation cohort.

Results: The C-indices of the PMS for predicting OS in the discovery and validation cohorts were 0.79 and 0.74, respectively. In the whole cohort, the PMS was an independent predictor of OS [hazard ratio (HR) =8.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.48-12.04; P<0.001], and the C-index (0.78) of the PMS was significantly higher than that of the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine (JHUSM) nomogram (0.69, P<0.001), the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital (EHBSH) nomogram (0.67, P<0.001), American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.61, P<0.001), and MEGNA prognostic score (0.60, P<0.001). The patients in quartile 4 of PMS could benefit from adjuvant therapy (AT) (HR =0.54; 95% CI: 0.32-0.91; log-rank P=0.043), whereas those in the quartiles 1-3 could not. However, other nomograms and staging system failed to do so. Further analyses of potential mechanisms showed that the PMS was associated with tumor biological behaviors, pathway activation, and immune microenvironment.

Conclusions: The PMS could improve the prognostic accuracy and identify patients who would benefit from AT for ICC patients, and might facilitate decisions in treatment of ICC patients.