On the estimation of the fill rate for the continuous (s, S) inventory system for the lost sales context

PLoS One. 2022 Feb 17;17(2):e0263655. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263655. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

In the continuous review reorder point, base-stock (s, S) policy, the replenishment order is launched when the inventory position reaches the reorder point, s. It is commonly assumed that the inventory position is exactly equal to the reorder point at the moment the order is launched, when actually it could be lower at that moment. This implies neglecting the possible undershoots at the reorder point, which has a direct impact on the calculation of the expected shortages per replenishment cycle. This article presents a method for an exact calculation of the fill rate (fraction of demand that is immediately satisfied from shelf) which takes explicit account of the existence of undershoots and is applicable to any discrete demand distribution function in a context of lost sales. This method is based on the determination of the stock probability vector at the moment the replenishment order is launched. Furthermore, neglecting the undershoots is shown to lead to an overestimation of the fill rate, particularly when we move farther away from the unitary demand assumption. From a practical point of view, this behaviour involves underestimating the base-stock level, S, when a target fill rate is set for its determination. The method proposed in this paper overcomes these shortcomings.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Commerce / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Industry / standards*
  • Industry / statistics & numerical data
  • Product Line Management / standards*
  • Statistical Distributions*

Grants and funding

Initials of authors that receive the grant: E.G. and E. B. Grant number: SBPLY/19/180501/000151. Funder: European Regional Development Fund and Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha (JCCM/FEDER, UE). URL: https://fondosestructurales.castillalamancha.es/ The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.