The Role of Climatic, Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors in the Natural Movement of Urban Populations in Kazakhstan, 2012-2020: An Analysis from a Middle-Income Country in Central Asia

Background: This study addresses the importance of identifying key characteristics influencing demographic indicators for urban populations, emphasizing the need to consider regional climatic features and ecological factors. The research utilized data from ten main regional cities across the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Methods: This study involved a retrospective analysis based on secondary data from official sources spanning 2012-2020. We employed correlation analysis and multidimensional regression models.

Results: Noteworthy predictors for crude birth rate included the influence of effective temperature (β = 0.842, p < 0.0001), marriage rate (β = 0.780, p < 0.0001), Gini coefficient (β = -27.342, p = 0.020) and divorce rate (β = -2.060, p < 0.0001), with overall strong model performance (R² = 0.940). The degree of atmospheric pollution (β = -0.949, p = 0.044), effective temperature (β = -0.294, p < 0.0001) and Gini coefficient (β = 19.923, p = 0.015) were the predictors for crude mortality rate, with a high model fit (R² = 0.796).

Conclusions: The study unveils significant relationships between demographic indicators (crude birth rate, mortality rate) and variables like effective temperature, marriage rate, divorce rate, Gini coefficient, physician density and others. This analysis of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors influencing demographic indicators may help in promoting specific measures to address public health issues in Kazakhstan.