Background and purpose: The populations of rural areas across Europe, especially Slovenia, are ageing rapidly and the areas themselves are becoming depopulated. Therefore, this study aims to contribute to our understanding of the population dynamics and provide a method for forecasting housing and other long-term care needs.
Method: The surveys questioned those responsible for long-term care, the caretakers in institutional care, and current and potential homecare users in rural areas of Slovenia. We wanted to discover what they considered as crucial in the process of long-term care deinstitutionalization. Our 2020-2050 projections are based on the surveys conducted across 38 municipalities in the Eastern Slovenian region and an in-depth empirical study in Posavje. The results are embedded in the demographic projections and the multistate transition model of the declining functional capacities to forecast the needed housing facilities and human resources.
Results: The results are the time series of required capacities. Around 60% of respondents in Slovenian rural areas believe that even a better organization of homecare would not allow them to stay at home until death due to inadequately built housing and the absence of a continuous presence of caregivers. These findings were included in the projections. Therefore, community care in the network of Smart Silver Villages was proposed.
Discussion: Investments are needed to renovate the housing stock of older adults and construct sheltered, assisted living housing and specialized households in the community. Moreover, proper education and training of human resources would increase the output. In addition, financial solutions are advised to develop Smart Silver Villages.
Motivacija in namen: Podeželska območja po Evropi in v slovenskih regijah se hitro starajo in vse bolj praznijo. Zato je naš cilj prispevati k razumevanju te dinamike in podati metodo za projekcije potreb po nastanitvi in dolgotrajni oskrbi starejših na podeželju ter s tem revitalizacijo slovenskih pokrajin.
Metoda: Anketirali smo oskrbovalce in druge osebe v podeželskih občinah, odgovorne za dolgotrajno oskrbo, oskrbovance in potencialne uporabnike dolgotrajne oskrbe in jih povprašali, kaj je v procesu deinstitucionalizacije najpomembnejše. Naši zaključki temeljijo na raziskavah, opravljenih v 38 občinah vzhodnoslovenske regije, in poglobljeni empirični raziskavi v regiji Posavje, kjer smo na temelju demografskih projekcij prebivalstva in aktuarskega modela pojemanja mnogoterih padajočih funkcionalnih zmogljivosti, kakor tudi iz želja prebivalstva, ki izhajajo iz anket, napovedali dinamiko potrebnih prostorskih kapacitet in človeških virov za dolgotrajno oskrbo.
Rezultati: Za primer Posavja smo izpeljali časovno vrsto potrebnih zmogljivosti, upoštevajoč tudi, da je kar 60 % anketirancev na slovenskem podeželju prepričanih, da jim tudi boljša organizacija oskrbe na domu ne bi omogočila bivanja doma do smrti zaradi neustrezno zgrajenih stanovanj in nezmožnosti zagotavljanja stalne navzočnosti negovalcev, kar smo upoštevali v projekcijah.
Razprava: Potrebne so naložbe v obnovo obstoječega stanovanjskega fonda ali izgradnjo oskrbovanih stanovanj oziroma varovanih stanovanj ali gospodinjskih skupnosti kot samostojnih enot v skupnostni oskrbi, zagotoviti pa je treba tudi več oskrbovalcev, torej povečati obseg izobraževanja in usposabljanja na tem področju. Dane so tudi usmeritve v iskanje ustreznih finančnih virov, predvsem v sklopu evropske iniciative pametnih ekovasi.
Keywords: ageing; built environment; gerontology; long-term care; silver villages; social infrastructure.
© 2021 National Institute of Public Health, Slovenia, published by Sciendo.