Risk Prediction Model Development for Late On-Set Breast Cancer Screening in Low- and Middle-Income Societies: A Model Study for North Cyprus

Background: Early detection of breast cancer alters the prognosis and tools that can predict the risk for breast cancer in women will have a significant impact on healthcare systems in low- and middle-income regions, such as North Cyprus. Objective: In this study, we developed a simple breast cancer risk model for the women of North Cyprus. Methods: Data from 655 women, consisting of 318 breast cancer cases and 337 hospital-based controls, was used to develop and internally validate the model, external validation was carried out using, 653 women consisting of 126 cases and 527 controls. Data were obtained from medical records and interviews after informed consent. Results: A model was derived that consisted of age ≥50 years and <50 years and the presence and absence of >1 first-degree relatives (FDR) with breast cancer. From internal and external validations the model's AUCs were, 0.66 (95% CI = 0.62-0.70) and 0.69 (95% CI = 0.63-0.74) respectively. Conclusions: A unique model for risk prediction of breast cancer was developed to aid in identifying high-risk women from North Cyprus that can benefit from mammogram screening. Further study on a large scale that includes environmental risk factors is warranted.