Warm winters and cool springs negatively influence recruitment of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in a southern England chalk stream

Previous work suggests that juvenile salmon recruitment in rain-fed rivers is negatively influenced by warm and wet winters and cool springs. We tested whether this is generally applicable to a southern England chalk stream characterized by comparatively stable discharges and temperatures. We found that warm spawning and cool emergence temperatures negatively influenced juvenile recruitment between 2015 and 2020. Together these findings suggest an ability to predict juvenile productivity from water temperature records around spawning and fry emergence, thereby allowing time for management interventions in years of unfavourable temperatures.