Behavioral Economics in the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Theory and Simulations

Blas A Marin-Lopez; David Jimenez-Gomez; José-María Abellán-Perpiñán

doi:10.3390/ijerph19159557

Behavioral Economics in the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Theory and Simulations

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Aug 3;19(15):9557. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19159557.

Authors

Blas A Marin-Lopez¹, David Jimenez-Gomez¹, José-María Abellán-Perpiñán²

Affiliations

¹ Fundamentos del Análisis Económico (FAE), University of Alicante, 03690 Alicante, Spain.
² Applied Economics Department, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain.

Abstract

We provide a game-theoretical epidemiological model for the COVID-19 pandemic that takes into account that: (1) asymptomatic individuals can be contagious, (2) contagion is behavior-dependent, (3) behavior is determined by a game that depends on beliefs and social interactions, (4) there can be systematic biases in the perceptions and beliefs about the pandemic. We incorporate lockdown decisions by the government into the model. The citizens' and government's beliefs can exhibit several biases that we discuss from the point of view of behavioral economics. We provide simulations to understand the effect of lockdown decisions and the possibility of "nudging" citizens in the right direction by improving the accuracy of their beliefs.

Keywords: COVID-19; behavioral economics; epidemiology; game theory; public health policy.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
Communicable Disease Control
Economics, Behavioral
Government
Humans
Pandemics

Grants and funding

Blas A. Marin-Lopez gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities (ECO2017-87069-P). David Jimenez-Gomez is grateful for the funding from the Ministry of Science and Innovation and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER), through the PID2019-107081GB-I00 project; from the Ministry of Science and Innovation, through the project “Nudging applied to the improvement of regulation” (RED2018-102761-T); from the Valencian Community, through the Prometeo program PROMETEO/2021/073. José-María Abellán-Perpiñán is grateful for the funding from the Ministry of Science and Innovation and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) through the PID2019-104907GB-I00 project. He is also grateful for funding from Fundacion Seneca through the 20825/PI/18 project.